Don't let me forget###Three weeks later
At this point, it's possible to come backlook at data from two weeks following the change to see if there are any noticeable differences. Sadly, there's no dramatic reduction in a couplelow-quality questions from new users - but on the bright side, there isn't any reduction in decent questions either:
week Questions Bad Good PctNewUserQuestionsBad
------------- --------- --- ---- ----------------------
2013-09-30 366 171 195 46.72
2013-10-07 365 156 209 42.74
2013-10-14 330 128 202 38.79
That covers the first three weeks after the change (strictly-speaking, the first two days in the first week were prior to the change). Note that the total number of questions asked by new users takes an immediate hit, and run this query again... So does the number of good questions. That's not good. By week three, the situation appears to reverse itself somewhat, but there's still a noticeable drop in the # of questions across the board.
Overall, I'm fairly underwhelmed by the effects of this; the only reasonable conclusion I can draw from the results thus far is that it appears to drive away some small % of new users - some of whom would otherwise ask bad questions, others who might ask decent ones. As a sort of blind "hurdle" for new folks, it works - but as a way to increase quality, it's kind of a bust.
For now, I'll leave with this graph of OT closures over the past few weeks: